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Season 2 leagues: Seems we're now getting the point(s)
12-19-2012, 04:55 AM (This post was last modified: 12-19-2012 04:56 AM by CombatEX.)
Post: #54
RE: Season 2 leagues: Seems we're not getting the point(s)
Just because you beat one person doesn't mean you shouldn't be in their division. You're right. That's why I mentioned that 3 of the people I beat ended up in the same division as me.

More importantly, you can have a few people with 0 points in the best division since a loss can lose you all your points. That part is also true. However, that's why I said that around HALF of the people in my division have 0 points. That is statistically unlikely. Assuming divisions are tiered, I'd expect that people in my division after playing 9 games (8-1) would have stabilized a fair amount to reach this division. This means that they've probably played a similar number of games (at least around 5). The only way to have 0 points is if they lost at least 1 game. If they lost more than 1 game, it's pretty unlikely they would be in the same division as someone who went 8-1. So, let's take the best case scenario for the 30 or so people with 0 points, that is, they only lost 1 game like me. Now, in order to have 0 points, they would have had to have lost their last game (assuming you lose all your points when you lose a game).

Putting all this together is how I came to my verdict. What is the chance that 30 of 64 players with ~80%+ win/loss lost their last game? The number of players with 0 points should be ~20% since that is the chance they lost their last game. In fact, since you don't always go to 0 points on a loss, there should be even fewer than 20% of players with 0 points in my division if divisions were tiered. Actually, if we want to be precise, 8-1 is ~88.89% so you would expect only around 10% of players to have 0 points in my division. I could understand how there could be fluctuation to maybe 20% or even 25%, but 47% (the percentage of players with 0 points in my division) is highly unlikely in a tiered division system.

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RE: Season 2 leagues: Seems we're not getting the point(s) - CombatEX - 12-19-2012 04:55 AM

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