Matchmaking...is it equal?

[Emuchu]

Points mostly show activity, that's true, and they're biased towards wins, i.e., you get more points for winning against an equal opponent than the points you would lose for a defeat. So if you play often enough, and can maintain at least a 50% win rate, your points will rise regardless of your skill. You can deduce relative strength, though, based on how many points you win/lose against any given opponent. I think "approximately equal" is around 12 points on a win.